, imagination and independence in children) to five different measures of religiosity, including beliefs and attendance. We control …

. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs … between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in …

beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over … process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases …