Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot credibly commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not...

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then test the presence of two effects that trade can have on the...

We analyse the effects of trade liberalization on firms' decisions and profits, and on consumers' welfare, in a product differentiation model with countries of different size. Firms decide product specifications at the beginning of the game, in which autarky is followed by trade liberalization...

The gravity model of trade is utilized to assess the impact of disintegration on trade. The analysis is based on three recent disintegration episodes involving the former Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. The results point to a very strong home bias around the time of disintegration,...

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data. Our framework features cross-country labor productivity difference, international trade, remittances, and a...

We merge German balance-of-payments and foreign-affiliate-trade statistics to obtain data about trade in commercial services at the firm level. We use these data to study export market participation and the choice of export mode: cross-border versus foreign-affiliate sales. We find that for...

We formulate a two-country model with monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms to reconsider labor market linkages in open economies. Labor-market imperfections arise by virtue of country-specific real minimum wages. Two principal experiments are considered. First, we show that trade...

We explore the relationship between greater exposure to trade (as measured by openness) and child labour in a cross-country setting. Our methodology accounts for the fact that trade flows are endogenous to child labour (and labour standards more generally) by examining the relationship between...

We consider an endogenous growth model that includes international trade in capital goods. The model yields several distinct balanced growth solutions that can be classified using stability under adaptive learning. Some of the equilibria can involve growth rates much higher (or lower) than...

This paper seeks to integrate more closely the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. The currency area is considered as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to...