We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow …

We study the pricing of political uncertainty in a general equilibrium model of government policy choice. We find that … political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in poorer economic conditions. Political uncertainty …

, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used … uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries. …

We analyze how changes in government policy affect stock prices. Our general equilibrium model features uncertainty … average. The price fall is expected to be large if uncertainty about government policy is large, as well as if the policy …

We study how the labour market and industry uncertainty affect the investment decisions of multinational enterprises …

flexibility. This is because both demand uncertainty and persistent supply shocks will, on average, cause output to fall below …