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This paper investigates the timing, frequency and the impact of structural breaks on the stability of the predictive content of a large number of financial variables for Canada's output growth. The forecasts are evaluated over two identified out-of-sample regimes using both the equal accuracy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005040609
series, there is no clear consensus regarding the forecasting abilities of these models. In this paper we develop a general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605227
To forecast at several, say h, periods into the future, a modeller faces two techniques: iterating one-step ahead forecasts (the IMS technique) or directly modelling the relation between observations separated by an h-period interval and using it for forecasting (DMS forecasting). It is known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051131
Structural models` inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naive devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051174