This paper investigates the timing, frequency and the impact of structural breaks on the stability of the predictive content of a large number of financial variables for Canada's output growth. The forecasts are evaluated over two identified out-of-sample regimes using both the equal accuracy...

A new test for non-linearity in the conditional mean is proposed using functions of the principal components of regressors.  The test extends the non-linearity tests based on Kolmogorov-Gavor polynomials (Thursby and Schmidt, 1977, Tsay, 1986, and Terasvirta, Lin and Granger, 1993), but...

A new test for non-linearity is developed using weighted combinations of regressor powers based on the eigenvectors of the variance-covariance matrix. The test extends the ingenious test for heteroskedasticity proposed by White (1980), but both circumvents problems of high dimensionality and...

To forecast at several, say h, periods into the future, a modeller faces two techniques: iterating one-step ahead forecasts (the IMS technique) or directly modelling the relation between observations separated by an h-period interval and using it for forecasting (DMS forecasting). It is known...

Structural models` inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naive devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction...