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Scoring political economy models: a multiple equilibrium approach

Blomberg, S. Brock; Cohen, Gerald D. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1994

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005387296

Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates

Chauvet, Marcelle; Juhn, Chinhui; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2001

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526273

Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle

Chauvet, Marcelle; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2001

The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526294

Nonlinear risk

Chauvet, Marcelle; Potter, Simon - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1999

This paper proposes a flexible framework for analyzing the joint time series properties of the level and volatility of expected excess stock returns. An unobservable dynamic factor is constructed as a nonlinear proxy for the market risk premia with its first moment and conditional volatility...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420620

Industry restructuring measures and productivity: evidence from the 1980s

Blomberg, S. Brock; Steindel, Charles - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1995

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between corporate restructuring and productivity. We estimate … allocation and productivity. We find, at most, restructuring may have spurred the substitution of capital for labor in some … industries, helping to set the stage for increased labor productivity. However, there is little evidence that restructurings …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005717231