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This paper makes four points about the recent dynamics of productivity and potential output. First, after accelerating … in the mid-1990s, labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed after the early to mid 2000s. This slowdown preceded … the Great Recession. Second, in contrast to some informal commentary, productivity performance during the Great Recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026917
, including capital, are used to produce a quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP). In addition, the dataset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026920
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that …, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth … model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower underlying productivity growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026938
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877944
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948836
Governments in extraction countries are anxious to estimate expected investment in development projects, since they represent an essential element of the macro economy. The overall level of activity is also crucial to oil companies, since the macro picture affects cost levels, the supplies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948869
The renewal of interest in macroeconomic theories of search frictions in the goods market requires a deeper understanding of the cyclical properties of the intensive margins in this market. We review the theoretical mechanisms that promote either procyclical or countercyclical movements in time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010930257
industries is highly correlated, identifiable shocks, like shocks to productivity, are far less correlated. While previous work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361478
This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078244
Whether prices are pro- or counter-cyclical represents a major difference in the predictions of models that focus on aggregate demand shocks as the primary source of business cycle fluctuations, versus those that emphasize shocks to aggregate supply. Earlier studies have interpreted their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078264