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Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records

Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2013

We estimate cross-border spillover effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on output, bilateral trade flows, interest rate, and the exchange rate, employing the new IMF action-based fiscal consolidation data. Results indicate a negative effect of foreign fiscal consolidation policies on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010674455

Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area

Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2012

We estimate spillover effects of a fiscal shock in one member country in the euro area on outputs of the rest of the members, using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model. We compare the effects of a domestic fiscal shock with those of a similar size area-wide shock expressed as a weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010568610

China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar

McKinnon, Ronald Ian; Schnabl, Gunther - CESifo - 2008

Since 2004, China has been backed into a situation where the renminbi is expected to go ever higher against the dollar, and this one-way bet has led to a loss of domestic monetary control. Combined with a more general flight from the U.S. dollar, the resulting monetary explosion in China...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405730

Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe

Grauwe, Paul De; Schnabl, Gunther - CESifo - 2004

exchange rate stability have a better explanatory power than the de jure measures in the inflation and growth equations. For … well as a highly significant positive impact of exchange stability on real growth. When sub-dividing the period into a … exchange rate stability with higher real growth remains quite robust. Thus our findings can be interpreted to mean that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766042

Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia

Schnabl, Gunther - CESifo - 2007

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange … stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from the ability to react in a flexible way to … stability can be argued to affect growth in emerging market economies positively because transaction costs for international …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766163