The need for a deeper understanding of the operation of Hong Kong's currency board arrangements was highlighted during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. A model-based approach built on hypothetical stochastic simulations would be useful for this purpose. This paper develops a new procedure of...

This study investigates whether greater nominal exchange rate flexibility aids real exchange rate adjustment based on data from dual exchange rates in developing countries. Specifically, we analyze whether the more flexible parallel market rate produces faster real exchange rate adjustment than...

Little is known about the total factor productivity of the non-tradable sectors in China. In this paper we estimate productivity growth of the non-tradable sectors by studying the relative price movements of the non-tradable sectors vis-a-vis the tradable sectors, i.e. changes in the internal...

The interaction between the exchange rate regime, trade firms' price-setting behavior, and exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is an important topic in international economics. This paper studies this using a goods-level dataset of US-China trade prices collected by the US Bureau of Labor...

Most theoretical analysis of flexible vs. fixed exchange rates take the degree of nominal rigidity to be independent of the exchange rate regime choice itself. But informal policy discussion often suggests that a credible exchange rate peg may increase internal price flexibility. This paper...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

While the relationship between volatility and risk is central to much of the financial literature it has not been incorporated systematically into assessment of sovereign debt sustainability. This paper attempts to fill this gap by studying how the probability distribution of sovereign debt to...

Real GDP tends to underestimate the increase in real domestic value added, real GDI, and welfare when the terms of trade improve. An improvement in the terms of trade is similar to a technological progress. The national accounts treat the two phenomena very unevenly, however, with a change in...

The dominance of the US dollar in foreign exchange (FX) markets appears to reflect very strong network effects in the use of international currencies. What we observe today is the result of a slow-moving process that has witnessed a switch from the dominance of the pound sterling to the US...

We investigate the performance and risk of currency hedge funds using a large and unique consolidated currency hedge fund dataset. We find that a substantial number of hedge funds generate returns that exceed foreign exchange risk premia obtained through carry trades. The best alpha-generating...