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Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693

Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy; Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825754

Liquidity Shortages and Monetary Policy

Cao, Jin; Illing, Gerhard - CESifo - 2008

pure illiquidity risk. It is shown that, when bad states are highly unlikely, public provision of liquidity may improve the … an incentive of financial intermediaries to free ride on liquidity in good states, resulting in excessively low liquidity … more liquid investment. In that case, liquidity injection will make the free riding problem even worse. The results show …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766205

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2009

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051516

Financial Fragility, Bubbles and Monetary Policy

Illing, Gerhard - CESifo - 2001

prevent a run on financial intermediation by injecting liquidity when asset values fall significantly. The inflationary side … a central bank to inject liquidity in a crisis. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181425

Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - CESifo - 2006

The paper shows that US monetary policy has been an important determinant of global equity markets. Analysing 50 equity markets worldwide, we find that returns fall on average around 3.8% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, ranging from a zero response in some to a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181586

Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset.

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2011

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861862