Since the global financial crisis, Central Banks have used various policy tools to sustain financial stability besides price stability. Additional Monetary Tightening is one of these tools that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey used in 2011-2012. The effects of this tool on the exchange...

This paper investigates the trend in the monthly real price of oil between 1990 and 2008 with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Trend and volatility are estimated jointly with the maximum likelihood estimation. There is long persistence in the variance of...

This study explores the volatility models and evaluates the quality of one-step ahead forecasts of volatility constructed by (1) GARCH, (2) TGARCH, (3) Risk metrics and (4) Historical volatility. Volatility forecasts suggest that TGARCH performs relatively best in term of MSPE, followed by...

Since the seminal work by Engle (1982), the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model has been an important tool for estimating the time-varying volatility as a measure of risk. Numerous extensions of this model have been put forward in the literature. The current paper offers...

The paper considers the Markov-Switching GARCH(1,1)-model with time-varying transition probabilities. It derives sufficient conditions for the square of the process to display long memory and provides some additional intuition for the empirical observation that estimated GARCH-parameters often...

This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump-GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon...

This study investigates the existence of day of the week effects on stock returns in the Colombian Stock Exchange (CSE) for the period between June 2001 and March 2005. The Bogotá Stock Exchange was established in 1928. However, the two other main bourses in the country merged with this in 2001...

Variance targeting estimation is a technique used to alleviate the numerical difficulties encountered in the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of GARCH models. It relies on a reparameterization of the model and a first-step estimation of the unconditional variance. The remaining...

This paper presents the R package bayesGARCH which provides functions for the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious but effective GARCH(1,1) model with Student-t innovations. The estimation procedure is fully automatic and thus avoids the time-consuming and difficult task of tuning a sampling...

This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump-GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon...