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Spend-and-tax: A Panel Data Investigation for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2009

Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States. Moreover, in the run-up to EMU there was some shifting away from a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013057

Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2010

This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727299

Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2009

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765818

Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2010

We study sovereign bond yields in OECD countries with a dynamic panel by checking for cross-section dependence; assessing panel cointegration; and estimating panel error-correction models. The results show that markets consider budgetary and external imbalances and inflation as relevant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498994

3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2008

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406275

What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2008

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416479

Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2009

We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051497

Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2012

We use real]time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575440

Has the EMU Reduced Wage Growth and Unemployment? Testing a Model of Trade Union Behaviour

Mikosch, Heiner; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2011

(EMU) led to lower wage growth and lower unemployment in participating countries. Following Grüner’s model, monetary …. Although we come up with some weak evidence for increased business cycle amplitudes within the EMU, we neither find a … significant general effect of the EMU on wage growth nor on unemployment. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020101

Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence

Toolsema, Linda A.; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2001

This paper examines how the pass-through of monetary policy measures in 6 EMU countries has evolved over time and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181532