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Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustment: A Tale of two Approaches

Yang, Weonho; Fidrmuc, Jan; Ghosh, Sugata - CESifo - 2013

We investigate the short-term effects of fiscal adjustment on economic activity in 20 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009. We compare two approaches: the traditional approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) and the narrative approach based on historical records....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010693461

Government Spending Shocks and the Multiplier: New Evidence from the U.S. Based on Natural Disasters

Yang, Weonho; Fidrmuc, Jan; Ghosh, Sugata - CESifo - 2012

The literature on estimating macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy requires suitable instruments to identify exogenous and unanticipated spending shocks. So far, the instrument of choice has been military build-ups. This instrument, however, largely limits the analysis to the US as few other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877863

Using Military Build-Ups to Capture Fiscal Shocks: A Reassessment

Yang, Weonho; Fidrmuc, Jan; Ghosh, Sugata - CESifo - 2014

Ramey (2011a) and others argue that increases in government spending associated with wars and military build-ups constitute a good instrument for measuring the macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks. We argue that this instrument has two important drawbacks: the composition of government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752160

Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2012

We use real]time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575440

Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Shocks: New Evidence Using Natural Disaster Relief in Korea

Yang, Weonho; Fidrmuc, Jan; Ghosh, Sugata - CESifo - 2012

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in Korea. We compare results obtained with two alternative approaches: the narrative approach and Structural Vector-Autoregressive model (SVAR). We propose a new methodology for identifying exogenous and unexpected fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010578151

Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence

Toolsema, Linda A.; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2001

This paper examines how the pass-through of monetary policy measures in 6 EMU countries has evolved over time and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181532

Has the EMU Reduced Wage Growth and Unemployment? Testing a Model of Trade Union Behaviour

Mikosch, Heiner; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2011

(EMU) led to lower wage growth and lower unemployment in participating countries. Following Grüner’s model, monetary …. Although we come up with some weak evidence for increased business cycle amplitudes within the EMU, we neither find a … significant general effect of the EMU on wage growth nor on unemployment. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020101