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Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2012

We use real]time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575440

Restructuring the ECB

Berger, Helge; Haan, Jakob de; Inklaar, Robert - CESifo - 2003

Soon, euro area membership could more than double, with the vast majority of accession countries being quite different in economic terms compared with current members. Under the current decision-making system, this can lead to high decisionmaking costs and there is a risk that monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094278

Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence

Toolsema, Linda A.; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2001

This paper examines how the pass-through of monetary policy measures in 6 EMU countries has evolved over time and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181532

Is there Really a European Business Cycle?

Inklaar, Robert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2000

may have important consequences, as existing differences in business cycles in the EMU-countries may not disappear due to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405768

Interest Rate Linkages in EMU Countries: A Rolling Threshold Vector Error-Correction Approach

Haan, Jakob de; Poghosyan, Tigran - CESifo - 2007

This paper revisits financial market integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union, using a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM) for a fixed rolling window. This approach enables us to analyze the dynamics of transaction costs and detect any co-movements with (policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406100

Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory

Elbourne, Adam; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2004

We review studies on monetary transmission in the EU countries using the VAR approach and analyse why they often lead to divergent outcomes. Firstly, we estimate 43 VAR models across ten EU countries and compare the robustness of the ranking of the magnitudes of the price and output responses....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406120

The End of the Stability and Growth Pact?

Haan, Jakob de; Berger, Helge; Jansen, David-Jan - CESifo - 2003

This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice for so-called soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406264

Has the EMU Reduced Wage Growth and Unemployment? Testing a Model of Trade Union Behaviour

Mikosch, Heiner; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2011

(EMU) led to lower wage growth and lower unemployment in participating countries. Following Grüner’s model, monetary …. Although we come up with some weak evidence for increased business cycle amplitudes within the EMU, we neither find a … significant general effect of the EMU on wage growth nor on unemployment. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020101

Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?

Mink, Mark; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2005

This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765915