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Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers

Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2014

A number of recent studies regress a “narratively” identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of an instrumental variable approach in which the narrative time series is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948895

Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records

Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2013

We estimate cross-border spillover effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on output, bilateral trade flows, interest rate, and the exchange rate, employing the new IMF action-based fiscal consolidation data. Results indicate a negative effect of foreign fiscal consolidation policies on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010674455

Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2012

We use real]time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575440

Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area

Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2012

We estimate spillover effects of a fiscal shock in one member country in the euro area on outputs of the rest of the members, using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model. We compare the effects of a domestic fiscal shock with those of a similar size area-wide shock expressed as a weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010568610

Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence

Toolsema, Linda A.; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2001

This paper examines how the pass-through of monetary policy measures in 6 EMU countries has evolved over time and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181532

Has the EMU Reduced Wage Growth and Unemployment? Testing a Model of Trade Union Behaviour

Mikosch, Heiner; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2011

(EMU) led to lower wage growth and lower unemployment in participating countries. Following Grüner’s model, monetary …. Although we come up with some weak evidence for increased business cycle amplitudes within the EMU, we neither find a … significant general effect of the EMU on wage growth nor on unemployment. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020101