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Has the Stability and Growth Pact Stabilised?<br>Evidence from a Panel of 12 European Countries and Some Implications for the Reform of the Pact

Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca - CESifo - 2005

Ever since its inception EMU has been subject to controversy. The fiscal policy rules embedded in the Treaty on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406411

Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2010

This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727299

Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2009

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765818

Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2010

We study sovereign bond yields in OECD countries with a dynamic panel by checking for cross-section dependence; assessing panel cointegration; and estimating panel error-correction models. The results show that markets consider budgetary and external imbalances and inflation as relevant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498994

3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2008

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406275

What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2008

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416479

Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe

Schnabl, Gunther; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2013

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System diverging current account positions in Europe have prevailed. While the Southern and Western European countries have tended to run current account deficits, the current accounts of the Central and Northern European countries, in particular Germany,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877801

Hypnosis Before Wake-up Call?! The Revival of Sovereign Credit Risk Perception in the EMU-Crisis

Bordon, Ingo G.; Schmid, Kai D.; Schmidt, Michael - CESifo - 2014

the Maastricht treaty, the EMU convergence era, and the financial crisis. In detail, we find: (i) Since the 1980s the role … treaty, and again with the wake-up call due to the onset of the financial crisis. (ii) Before the financial crisis EMU member …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010888450

The Bail-Out! Positive Political Economics of Greek-type Crises in the EMU

Fahrholz, Christian; Wójcik, Cezary - CESifo - 2010

analysis suggests that, given EMU’s present political-economic set-up, i) the bail-out was unavoidable, ii) the lengthy process … with a future moral hazard problem. Based on our analysis, we suggest that the EMU’s institutional design could be improved … processes as well as the conditions and parameters on which the scope and limits of fiscal redistribution in EMU depends. In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671732

Transatlantic Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction

Aarle, Bas van; Garretsen, Harry; Huart, Florence - CESifo - 2003

This paper studies the design, effects and interactions of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro-area and between the euro-area and the non euro-area. To do so, a stylized three-country model of monetary and fiscal policy rules is constructed. It is analyzed how monetary and fiscal rules...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765866