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Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2010

This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727299

Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2009

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765818

Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2010

We study sovereign bond yields in OECD countries with a dynamic panel by checking for cross-section dependence; assessing panel cointegration; and estimating panel error-correction models. The results show that markets consider budgetary and external imbalances and inflation as relevant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498994

3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2008

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406275

What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - CESifo - 2008

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416479

Trust in Government and Fiscal Adjustments

Bursian, Dirk; Weichenrieder, Alfons; Zimmer, Jochen - CESifo - 2013

The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010674456

Euro Membership and Fiscal Reaction Functions

Weichenrieder, Alfons; Zimmer, Jochen - CESifo - 2013

The paper uses fiscal reaction functions for a panel of euro-area countries to investigate whether euro membership has reduced the responsiveness of countries to shocks in the level of inherited debt compared to the period prior to succession to the euro. While we find some evidence for such a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010665043

Panel Cointegration Tests on the Fiscal Sustainability of German Laender

Burret, Heiko T.; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - CESifo - 2014

This paper provides new evidence on the sustainability of public finances in German states (Laender) by exploiting a newly compiled database covering the years 1950]2011. Unlike previous studies on Germany, we analyze fiscal sustainability by applying gsecond generationh panel cointegration...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067195

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - CESifo - 2011

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of … VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period suggests that euro-denominated government yields are strongly linked … imbalances in Italy and in other peripheral countries should be closely monitored by their EMU partners and the European …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391724

The Impact of Fiscal Rules on Public Finances: Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area

Marneffe, Wim; Aarle, Bas Van; Wielen, Wouter Van Der; … - CESifo - 2010

This paper presents a review of the most significant fiscal rules policymakers can choose from. The insights from this review are then applied to the current budgetary situation of the European Union. In the European Union, the supranational Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) should provide the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833927