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What Drives Aggregate Investment?
Bachmann, Ruediger; Zorn, Peter - CESifo - 2013
Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010755772
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Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies
Boeckx, Jef; Dossche, Maarten; Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2014
We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887047
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The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis
Schnabl, Gunther - CESifo - 2013
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the … characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary … well as gradual real income losses, the economic policy implication for Japan and Europe is the timely exit from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659183
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Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models
Driscoll, John C.; Holden, Steinar - CESifo - 2014
Over the past 20 years, macroeconomists have incorporated more and more results from behavioral economics into their models. We argue that doing so has helped fixed deficiencies with standard approaches to modeling the economy—for example, the counterfactual absence of inertia in the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877677
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Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle
Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Visschers, Ludo - CESifo - 2013
This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877858
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Forecasting Tail Risks
Nicolò, Gianni De; Lucchetta, Marcella - CESifo - 2015
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212072
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Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations
Peersman, Gert; Wagner, Wolf - CESifo - 2014
type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752434
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Sector Specific News Shocks in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations
Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D. - CESifo - 2013
Using a two-sector estimated DSGE model with a financial channel we show the sector where TFP news arrives matters for its propagation and quantitative importance. Anticipated increases in TFP expected to arrive in the consumption sector are expansionary while those in the investment sector are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010667413
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Credit Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets
Romain, Houssa; Mohimont, Jolan; Otrok, Chris - CESifo - 2013
In this paper, we examine the role of global and domestic credit supply shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations for Emerging Markets. For this purpose, we impose a set of zero and sign restrictions within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model. Quarterly data from South Africa and G-7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010668472
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Trade and Uncertainty
Novy, Dennis; Taylor, Alan M. - CESifo - 2014
We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010779413