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The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe

Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2008

This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406450

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2009

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051516

Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset.

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2011

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861862

Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?

Jansen, David-Jan; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2006

We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its interest rate decisions. We use ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule which we estimate using statements by ECB officials as well as macroeconomic variables. Statements by ECB officials on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406103

Does Central Bank Communication really Lead to better Forecasts of Policy Decisions? New Evidence Based on a Taylor Rule Model for the ECB

Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2009

Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013956

Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation

Flaig, Gebhard; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2007

This paper presents a stress indicator for the Euro-zone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short-term interest rate and the interest rate that would...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094297

Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy

Sauer, Stephan; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2003

Over the last decade, the simple instrument policy rule developed by Taylor (1993) has become a popular tool for evaluating monetary policy of central banks. As an extensive empirical analysis of the ECB’s past behaviour still seems to be in its infancy, we estimate several instrument policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765927

Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules

Binici, Mahir; Cheung, Yin-Wong - CESifo - 2011

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294099

The Structure of Worker Compensation in Brazil, with a Comparison to France and the United States

Filho, Naércio Aquino Menezes; Muendler, Marc-Andreas; … - CESifo - 2006

We employ a comprehensive matched employer-employee data set for Brazil to analyze wage determinants and compare … selectivity of Brazilian workers into formal employment. The links between firm performance and wage components in Brazil resemble …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766015

The Deepening China Brazil Economic Relationship

Whalley, John; Medianu, Dana - CESifo - 2010

We document key features of the deepening economic relationship between Brazil and China. This is evident from sharply … international fora. Data presented show bilateral trade between Brazil and China surging after 2001 and China is now Brazil …’s largest export market while Brazil’s export share to the US has halved. The number of bilateral cooperation agreements between …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833874

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