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In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations, which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects of changes to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766248
We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the impact of commodity price volatility on economic growth in a … panel of up to 158 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that commodity price volatility leads to a … result, we show that increased commodity price volatility leads to a statistically significant and quantitatively large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009352227
response analysis. Second, we examine the announcements effects on market volatility in a more detailed fashion by … adequately analyze both conditional mean and volatility effects. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877723
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391720
experienced relatively low and non inclusive economic growth as well as high levels of macroeconomic volatility. Important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550241
, two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency … misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade flows. The extent of this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010555693
exports are no longer significant while the value of subsoil assets has a significant positive effect on growth. But the World … volatility channel, may lead one to erroneously conclude that there is no effect of resources on growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596595
-run demand shocks. In this setup, the volatility of a firm’s exports depends not only on the diversification of its destination … destinations makes the firm more likely to export occasionally to some markets, thereby raising volatility. These results cast … doubt on the commonly held belief that diversification must decrease volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010812496
Are natural resources a “curse” or a “blessing”? The empirical evidence suggests either outcome is possible. The paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources. These include that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534046
The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development, controlling …. This effect is significant and robust over a wide range of specifications. We unravel the effects of volatility by opening … dependence, physical and institutional barriers to trade and associated policy shocks increase volatility sharply and harm growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000394