Showing 1 - 10 of 249
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273092
The ‘saving for a rainy day’ hypothesis implies that households’ saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011278934
The HP filter is the most popular filter for extracting the trend and cycle components from an observed time series. Many researchers consider the smoothing parameter ë = 1600 as something like an universal constant. It is well known that the HP filter is an optimal filter under some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010548563
An inherent problem with comparing and ranking competing Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES) models is that they measure only a single realization of the underlying data generation process. The question is whether there is any significant statistical difference in the performance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010586077
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008572519
This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596582
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of different unemployment theories in three major economies, namely the … UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate …. Specifically, when taking a univariate approach, the unit root null cannot be rejected in case of the UK and Japanese unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067197
This paper examines the degree of persistence of youth unemployment (total, male and female) in twenty-four countries …-memory processes respectively. The evidence suggests that persistence is particularly high in Japan and some EU countries such as Spain … are necessary to prevent short-term unemployment from becoming structural (long-term). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010583640
We investigate the relationship between unemployment and growth in China. We find considerable differences in the … find a hump-shaped relationship between unemployment and our proxy for the speed of reform. The current unemployment in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877790
unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic … equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and … reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877858