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Retirement in Non-Cooperative and Cooperative Families

Hernæs, Erik; Jia, Zhiyang; Strøm, Steinar - CESifo - 2001

Models that allow for non-cooperative as well as cooperative behavior of families are estimated on data from Norway in 1993 and 1994. The husband is eligible for early retirement while the wife is not. The models aim at explaining labor supply behavior of married couples the first twelve months...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405831

Labour Supply Effects of an Early Retirement Programme

Brinch, Christian; Hernæs, Erik; Strøm, Steinar - CESifo - 2001

In 1988, an early retirement program (AFP) was introduced in Norway for the 66-years-old. Since then, AFP has gradually been extended and by now it covers workers aged 62-66. In this paper we employ a multinominal logit model to study the transition between states in the labour market. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181338

Cointegration Analysis with Mixed-Frequency Data

Seong, Byeongchan; Ahn, Sung K.; Zadrozny, Peter - CESifo - 2007

We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405735

Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination

Altavilla, Carlo; Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2006

combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405901

The Warsaw Stock Exchange Index WIG: Modelling and Forecasting

Wdowinski, Piotr; Zglinska-Pietrzak, Aneta - CESifo - 2005

In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406048

A Multi-Country Approach to Forecasting Output Growth Using PMIs

Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - CESifo - 2014

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093979

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - CESifo - 2012

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877703

Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - CESifo - 2014

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - CESifo - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766178

Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production

Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina - CESifo - 2010

to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498989