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Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road towards a Honeymoon - Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States
Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús; Egert, Balázs; MacDonald, Ronald - CESifo - 2005
This study investigates exchange rate movements in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) and in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM-II). On the basis of the variant of the target zone model proposed by Bartolini and Prati (1999) and Bessec (2003), we set up a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405889
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Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination
Altavilla, Carlo; Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2006
deviations from long-term equilibrium are small. In contrast, nonlinear models withmore elaborate mean-reverting components … dominate at longer horizons especially whendeviations from long-term equilibrium are large. The results also suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405901
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Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals
Altavilla, Carlo; Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2005
deviation between exchange rate and fundamentals is large. Conversely, when the exchange rate is close to its equilibrium value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406011
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Catching-up and Inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other Culprits
Egert, Balazs - CESifo - 2010
This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596582
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No Need to Run Millions of Regressions
Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2000
the data set of Sala-i-Martin, we use the least median of squares (LMS) estimator to identify outliers. As LMS is not … without outliers hardly reveals any additional information. Variables that are insignificant according to the RLS method are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094199
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Robust Growth Determinants
Doppelhofer, Gernot; Weeks, Melvyn - CESifo - 2011
, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008853850
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Tenure and Experience Effects on Wages: A Theory
Burdett, Ken; Coles, Melvyn - CESifo - 2010
endogenously over time through experience effects, tenure effects and quits to better paid employment. This equilibrium approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671718
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Adverse Selection in the Annuity Market with Sequential and Simultaneous Insurance Demand
Brunner, Johann K.; Pech, Susanne - CESifo - 2002
favourable for the long-living individuals, represent an equilibrium. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765977