In 1988, an early retirement program (AFP) was introduced in Norway for the 66-years-old. Since then, AFP has gradually been extended and by now it covers workers aged 62-66. In this paper we employ a multinominal logit model to study the transition between states in the labour market. The model...

Models that allow for non-cooperative as well as cooperative behavior of families are estimated on data from Norway in 1993 and 1994. The husband is eligible for early retirement while the wife is not. The models aim at explaining labor supply behavior of married couples the first twelve months...

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA,...

We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...