Similar Search Results

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - CESifo - 2013

sector credit booms rather than from the expansion of public debt. However, we find evidence that high levels of public debt … peak; (ii) the output drop is even worse and recovery even slower when the crisis is preceded by a credit boom; and (iii …) the path of recovery is worse still when a credit-fueled crisis coincides with elevated public debt levels. Recent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877944

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - CESifo - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948836

Estimating Fluctuations in Oil and Gas Investment

Dahl, Roy Endré; Osmundsen, Petter - CESifo - 2014

Governments in extraction countries are anxious to estimate expected investment in development projects, since they represent an essential element of the macro economy. The overall level of activity is also crucial to oil companies, since the macro picture affects cost levels, the supplies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948869

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies

Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka - CESifo - 2009

We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013072

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael - CESifo - 2009

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013955

Sector Specific News Shocks in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations

Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D. - CESifo - 2013

Using a two-sector estimated DSGE model with a financial channel we show the sector where TFP news arrives matters for its propagation and quantitative importance. Anticipated increases in TFP expected to arrive in the consumption sector are expansionary while those in the investment sector are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010667413

An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Yuen, Jude - CESifo - 2004

The prospect of creating a currency union consisting of China, Japan, and Korea is evaluated using output data. After a brief discussion on the interactions between the three countries, the study investigates whether these three countries have common synchronous business cycles, which are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765748

Consumption, Wealth and Business Cycles in Germany

Hamburg, Britta; Hoffmann, Mathias; Keller, Joachim - CESifo - 2005

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income in Germany, based on data from 1980 to 2003. While earlier studies — mostly for the Anglo-Saxon economies — have generally documented that departures of these three variables from their common trend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765943

Inflation and Output Dynamics in a Model with Labor Market Search and Capital Accumulation

Heer, Burkhard; Maussner, Alfred - CESifo - 2007

In a sticky-price model with labor market search and habit persistence, Walsh (2005) shows that inertia in the interest rate policy helps to reconcile the inflation and output persistence with empirical observations for the US economy. We show that this finding is sensitive with regard to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766166

Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area

Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Mink, Mark - CESifo - 2007

We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766179