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contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534005
The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765791
to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498989
aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534048
matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities’ reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861862
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877703
This article contributes to the literature on stock market integration by developing and estimating a capital asset pricing model with segmentation effects in order to assess stock market segmentation and its effects on risk premia at the regional level. We show that the estimated degrees of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877634
We contribute to the finance literature in two main ways. First, we present a theoretical capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to price assets in different market structures. Second, we use our model to analyze whether when markets are partially segmented using the local or the global CAPM yields...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877642
Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877668
This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on stock returns in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1994-2013. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877764