accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation. We consider BVAR averaging, Bayesian factor augmented VARs (BFAVARs … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special … Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and … regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during …

, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest that inflation in France and Italy is nonstationary. However, while for the … exclusively from the long-run or zero frequency. In the UK, inflation seems to be stationary with a component of long memory at …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time …-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the …-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and …