Showing 1 - 10 of 251
is argued that in a cointegration framework it is reasonable to define hysteresis as the absence of weak exogeneity of …The view that high unemployment in West Germany and other European countries is caused by a path dependence effect - or … "hysteresis" effect - is quite popular among economists. However, because of an identification problem, much of the empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766128
This paper analyses monthly hours worked in the US over the sample period 1939m1 – 2011m10 using a cyclical long memory model; this is based on Gegenbauer processes and characterised by autocorrelations decaying to zero cyclically and at a hyperbolic rate along with a spectral density that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877961
This paper explores time variation in the dynamic effects of technology shocks on U.S. output, prices, interest rates as well as real and nominal wages. The results indicate considerable time variation in U.S. wage dynamics that can be linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833938
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of different unemployment theories in three major economies, namely the … UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate …. Specifically, when taking a univariate approach, the unit root null cannot be rejected in case of the UK and Japanese unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067197
The ‘saving for a rainy day’ hypothesis implies that households’ saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011278934
This study examines the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636593
In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identifying restrictions for shocks and impulse responses are usually derived from economic theory or institutional constraints. Sometimes the restrictions are insufficient for identifying all shocks and impulse responses. In this paper it is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766131
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534005
The role of expectations for economic fluctuations has received considerable attention in recent business cycle analysis. We exploit Markov regime switching models to identify shocks in cointegrated structural vector autoregressions and investigate different identification schemes for bi-variate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405830
This analysis employs cointegration methods and semiparametric regression in order to assess the integration of maize …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008914284