This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional …

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the …

spread—to predict economic recessions in the United States. We also examine the sources of forecasting gains using a …

the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments …, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is …. Our main findings are as follows: (i) In comparison with the rational expectations approach, backward-looking behaviour …

to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …