Showing 1 - 10 of 54
In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components. The main findings are that there exist three cycles with a period of about two, five and 13 years, respectively, and that the long-run development during the last 50 years can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196244
In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405783
This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416484
From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799743
variables (typically the output gap) and solving the model for inflation in terms of the observables. In practice, the equation … not be appropriate. Thirdly, there are arguments that other variables, e.g.interest rates, foreign inflation and foreign … theoretically consistent measure of the steady state and provides a natural route for foreign inflation or output gap to enter the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005249468
After a brief review of classical, Keynesian, New Classical and New Keynesian theories of macroeconomic policy, we assess whether New Keynesian Economics captures the quintessential features stressed by J.M. Keynes. Particular attention is paid to Keynesian features omitted in New Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181517
In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020783
compares price inflation before the crisis with the necessary and actual price cuts that have taken place since the outbreak of … the crisis, predicting a decade of stagnation for the south and inflation for the north. Keynesian demand policy is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877720
repression in domestic interest rates—to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877868
import prices only to a small extent, it may have a substantial impact on inflation, as it exerts a sizeable impact on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010535633