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The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated … rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659187
This paper deals with the economics of Bitcoins in two ways. First, it broadens the discussion on how to capture Bitcoins using economic terms. Center stage in this analysis take the discussion of some unique characteristics of this market as well as the comparison of Bitcoins and gold. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099050
of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948892
of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010544182
This paper, first, empirically investigates European emission allowance (EUA) prices and, second, evaluates emission trading as a policy measure. Applying combined jump GARCH models yields strong evidence of conditional jump behavior. This implies that EUA prices are subject to unexpected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004979418
The renewed momentum in the German housing market has led to concerns that Germany is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to detect the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Germany over the sample period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877826
forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273092
In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the information content of subjective expert density forecasts using micro data from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of scoring functions which evaluate the entire predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386355
forecasts based on exponential down-weighting critically depends on the choice of the weighting coefficient. The forecasting … techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094212
This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181544