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From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799743
This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a … structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil … demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575442
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948836
This study concentrates on the signal approach for Kazakhstan. It focuses on the properties of individual indicators prior to observed currency crises. The indicators are used to build composite indicators. An advanced approach uses principal components analysis for the construction of composite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008572474
We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that … inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two … international shock that drives national inflation uncertainty and which is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877745
and increases with monetary uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596597
and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094297
restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost channel helps to generate an initial rise of inflation after a monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094397
of the relation between market power and inflation. We examine this relation for individual firms in eleven U … generate quantitative evidence on the responsiveness of market power to inflation. We find that inflation usually has a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094449
individuals use simple rules of thumb (heuristics) to forecast the future inflation and output gap. We compare this model with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405712