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Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information

Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayr, Johannes; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2008

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181446

Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels

Pesaran, Hashem M.; Chudik, Alexander - CESifo - 2011

This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is … Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is derived, and the limiting behavior of the aggregation error is investigated … which ‘observed’ inflation persistence at the aggregate level is due to aggregation and/or common unobserved factors. Our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008853858

Catching-up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries: An Interpretation within the New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework

Backé, Peter; Wójcik, Cezary - CESifo - 2006

Credit to the private sector has risen rapidly in many Central and Eastern European EU Member States (MS) and acceding countries (AC) in recent years. The lending boom has recently been particularly strong in the segment of loans to households, primarily mortgage-based housing loans, and in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094180

Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States

MacDonald, Ronald; Wójcik, Cezary - CESifo - 2006

In this paper we propose an alternative explanation for the nature, sources and consequences of inflation rate differentials in a monetary union, such as EMU. To achieve this, we build on the new neoclassical synthesis (NNS) framework, recently advanced by Goodfriend (2002) and Goodfriend and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181452