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Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ciferri, Davide; Girardi, … - CESifo - 2010
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534005
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The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates
Gollier, Christian - CESifo - 2005
The efficient rate of return of a zero-coupon bond with maturity <i>t</i> is determined by our expectations about the mean (+), variance (-) and skewness (+) of the growth of aggregate consumption between 0 and <i>t</i>. The shape of the yield curve is thus determined by how these moments vary with <i>t</i>. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094448
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An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors
Dewachter, Hans; Iania, Leonardo - CESifo - 2010
This paper extends the benchmark Macro-Finance model by introducing, next to the standard macroeconomic factors, additional liquidity-related and return forecasting factors. Liquidity factors are obtained from a decomposition of the TED spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008572472
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A Strategic R&D Investment with Flexible Development Time in Real Option Game Analysis
Villani, Giovanni - CESifo - 2009
The real option theory provides a useful tool to evaluate an R&D investment under uncertainty because, unlike the NPV …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013067
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The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis
Gronwald, Marc; Ketterer, Janina; Trück, Stefan - CESifo - 2011
This paper applies different copulas in order to investigate the complex dependence structure between EU emission allowance (EUA) futures returns and those of other commodities, equity and energy indices. The analysis yields important insights into the relationship between carbon, commodities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008914281
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Do Firms Sell Forward for Strategic Reasons? An Application to the Wholesale Market for Natural Gas
Eijkel, Remco van; Gonzalez, José Luis Moraga - CESifo - 2010
Building on a model of the interaction of risk-averse firms that compete in forward and spot markets, we develop an empirical strategy to test whether oligopolistic firms use forward contracts for strategic motives, for risk-hedging, or for both. An increase in the number of players weakens the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799744
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Equity Risk Premium and Regional Integration
Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi; Teulon, Frédéric; Rault, … - CESifo - 2013
This article contributes to the literature on stock market integration by developing and estimating a capital asset pricing model with segmentation effects in order to assess stock market segmentation and its effects on risk premia at the regional level. We show that the estimated degrees of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877634
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Market Structure and the Cost of Capital
Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi; Rault, Christophe; Sova, Robert; … - CESifo - 2013
partially segmented using the local or the global CAPM yields significant errors in the estimation of the cost of capital for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877642
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Structural Vector Autoregressions: Checking Identifying Long-run Restrictions via Heteroskedasticity
Luetkepohl, Helmut; Velinov, Anton - CESifo - 2014
) analysis. Such restrictions are typically just-identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility. This paper … reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have been used for this purpose. Three main approaches have been used …, exogenously generated changes in the unconditional residual covariance matrix, changing volatility modelled by a Markov switching …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877668
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Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Means Analysis
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola - CESifo - 2014
-2013. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH-in-mean model. The results can be summarised as follows …. Positive (negative) news have significant positive (negative) effects on stock returns in all cases. Their volatility has a … significant impact on both stock returns and volatility; specifically, an increase in news volatility is always associated with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877764