Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 123
Cover Image
Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle
Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Visschers, Ludo - CESifo - 2013
This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877858
Cover Image
Towards a Macroprudential Surveillance and Remedial Policy Formulation System for Monitoring Financial Crisis
Bhattacharyay, Biswa N. - CESifo - 2009
Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s which resulted in severe economic, social, and political problems. The devastating impact of the 1982 and 1994-95 Mexican crises, the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583704
Cover Image
Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union
Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2010
This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation … the fraction of borrowers and to a lesser extent the loan-to-value ratio - generate inflation differentials that are … characteristics of financial markets should be seen as a possible alternative explanation for the observable inflation dispersion in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727289
Cover Image
Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models
Driscoll, John C.; Holden, Steinar - CESifo - 2014
Over the past 20 years, macroeconomists have incorporated more and more results from behavioral economics into their models. We argue that doing so has helped fixed deficiencies with standard approaches to modeling the economy—for example, the counterfactual absence of inertia in the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877677
Cover Image
Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies
Boeckx, Jef; Dossche, Maarten; Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2014
We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887047
Cover Image
Forecasting Tail Risks
Nicolò, Gianni De; Lucchetta, Marcella - CESifo - 2015
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212072
Cover Image
Does Central Bank Communication really Lead to better Forecasts of Policy Decisions? New Evidence Based on a Taylor Rule Model for the ECB
Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2009
information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013956
Cover Image
Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2011
I find that the Eurosystem can stimulate the economy beyond the policy rate by increasing the size of its balance sheet or the monetary base, that is so-called quantitative easing. The transmission mechanism turns out to be different compared to traditional interest rate innovations: (i) whilst...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320781
Cover Image
Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models
Ormeño, Arturo - CESifo - 2011
Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this … restriction and helps to determine the forecasting model for inflation that agents use under learning. My results reveal that the … inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009278136
Cover Image
Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations
Peersman, Gert; Wagner, Wolf - CESifo - 2014
type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752434