Showing 1 - 10 of 97
A growing literature uses changes in residual volatility for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. A number of different models for heteroskedasticity or conditional heteroskedasticity are proposed and used in applications in this context. This study reviews the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257667
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation. We consider BVAR averaging, Bayesian factor augmented VARs (BFAVARs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728
density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293484
economy using Bayesian methods. We find that the model captures the key dynamics of the period surprisingly well. Importantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391723
Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009278136
This paper formulates a dynamic Random Coefficient Model (RCM) to consider a set of popular determinants of public deficits in the EU-15 over the period 1971-2006, both at a country-specific level and from a population-wide perspective. Although the extent of government deficits and debt has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766282
Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004979395
technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain … Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000367
beyond marginal measures of variable importance, jointness reveals generally unknown forms of dependence. Positive jointness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094441
We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to evaluate the robustness of determinants of economic growth in a new dataset of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094484