constant inflation. This change has been more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in … 1995 would have led to an annual increase in inflation of 2.5 percentage points if it had not been largely offset by …

It is an open question whether and how indexed wage contracts reduce welfare or raise average inflation. This paper … analyzes the impact of indexed wage contracts on inflation and social welfare in a Barro–Gordon model with discretionary … monetary policy by endogenizing social costs of indexation. Main results are: Wage indexation reduces the inflation bias but …

, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is … the Ifo World Economic Survey, which quarterly polls economic experts about their expected future development of inflation … turns out to more relevant for most countries in our sample. (ii) The use of survey data for inflation expectations yields a …

Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic discounting, small positive rates of inflation can be optimal. In … our baseline calibration, the optimal rate of inflation is 2.1% and remains positive across a wide range of calibrations. …

indexation to past inflation to vary according to the monetary policy regime. We find that the extent of wage indexation is … significantly lower in an inflation targeting regime, in contrast to monetary targeting, exchange rate targeting and policy regimes …

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …

optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a … Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …