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The Exhaustion of Unemployment Benefits in Belgium. Does it Enhance the Probability of Employment?

Cockx, Bart; Ries, Jean - CESifo - 2004

In Belgium unemployment insurance benefits can only exhaust for one category of workers: partners of workers with (replacement) labour income (mostly women) may loose their entitlement after an unemployment duration ranging from two to eight years, depending on individual characteristics. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765928

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - CESifo - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766178

Infrastructure and Growth: Empirical Evidence

Egert, Balazs; Kozluk, Tomasz; Sutherland, Douglas - CESifo - 2009

Investment in network infrastructure can boost long-term economic growth in OECD countries. Moreover, infrastructure investment can have a positive effect on growth that goes beyond the effect of the capital stock because of economies of scale, the existence of network externalities competition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013038

Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows

Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem - CESifo - 2007

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094286

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2009

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051516

Revisiting the Link between Growth and Federalism: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Asatryan, Zareh; Feld, Lars P. - CESifo - 2013

Following the ambiguous results in the literature aimed at understanding the empirical link between fiscal federalism and economic growth, this paper revisits the question using a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. The analysis suggests that the failure to appropriately account for model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010690384

The Impact of Financial (De-)Regulation on Current Account Balances

Moral-Benito, Enrique; Röhn, Oliver - CESifo - 2014

Both global imbalances and financial market (de-)regulation feature prominently among the potential causes of the global financial crisis, but they have been largely discussed separately. In this paper, we take a different angle and investigate the relationship between financial market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011082830

Productivity as if Space Mattered: An Application to Factor Markets Across China

Cheng, Wenya; Morrow, John; Tacharoen, Kitjawat - CESifo - 2013

results quantify the role of regional factor markets in firm productivity and location. Considering modern China as a large …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877649

Productivity Response to a Contract Change

Jayaraman, Rajshri; Ray, Debraj; Véricourt, Francis de - CESifo - 2014

This paper studies the productivity impact of a contract change for tea pluckers in an Indian plantation. The contract …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877659

The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered

Bordo, Michael D.; Choudhri, Ehsan U.; Fazio, Giorgio; … - CESifo - 2014

Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the … real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample … argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877817