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Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence for the United States
Bernardini, Marco; Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2015
Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212082
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Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-Cyclical?
Egert, Balazs - CESifo - 2012
This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540250
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Tax Smoothing in a Business Cycle Model with Capital-Skill Complementarity
Angelopoulos, Konstantinos; Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; … - CESifo - 2014
This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010757726
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Appropriate Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: Proper Stimulus Policies Can Work
Graves, Philip E. - CESifo - 2010
Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498997
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Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area
Staehr, Karsten - CESifo - 2007
This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future … counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from … the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181244
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Does Short-Time Work Save Jobs? A Business Cycle Analysis
Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; … - CESifo - 2014
In the Great Recession most OECD countries used short-time work (publicly subsidized working time reductions) to counteract a steep increase in unemployment. We show that short-time work can actually save jobs. However, there is an important distinction to be made: While the rule-based component...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743447
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The Optimal Distribution of the Tax Burden over the Business Cycle
Angelopoulos, Konstantinos; Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; … - CESifo - 2013
This paper analyses optimal income taxes over the business cycle under a balanced-budget restriction, for low, middle and high income households. A model incorporating capital-skill complementarity in production and differential access to capital and labour markets is de-veloped to capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010711142
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What are the Effects of Tax Changes in the United Kingdom? New Evidence from a Narrative Evaluation
Cloyne, James - CESifo - 2011
This paper estimates the effects of tax changes on the U.K. economy. Identification is achieved by isolating the ‘exogenous’ tax policy shocks in the post-war U.K. economy using a narrative strategy as in Romer and Romer (2010). The resulting tax changes are shown to be unforecastable on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020785
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Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - CESifo - 2011
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391724
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Trust in Government and Fiscal Adjustments
Bursian, Dirk; Weichenrieder, Alfons; Zimmer, Jochen - CESifo - 2013
The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010674456