This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time …-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the …-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and …

individuals use simple rules of thumb (heuristics) to forecast the future inflation and output gap. We compare this model with the …

found to help rationalizing the hump-shaped response of inflation, without resorting to the counterfactual assumption of …

This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation … the fraction of borrowers and to a lesser extent the loan-to-value ratio - generate inflation differentials that are … characteristics of financial markets should be seen as a possible alternative explanation for the observable inflation dispersion in …

rate policy helps to reconcile the inflation and output persistence with empirical observations for the US economy. We show … findings for the inflation inertia in a model with capital adjustment costs and variable capacity utilization, the output …

We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that … inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two … international shock that drives national inflation uncertainty and which is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty …

and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short …

restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost channel helps to generate an initial rise of inflation after a monetary …