Showing 1 - 10 of 146
We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011205380
Over the last decade, the topic of regional economic forecasting has become increasingly prevalent in academic literature. The most striking problem in this context is data availability at a regional level. However, considerable methodological improvements have been made to address this problem....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011103393
Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766115
emerging market economies. Expansionary monetary policies in response to the burst of bubbles are argued to have contributed to … vagabonding bubbles around the globe. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094169
spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that … between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009150640
There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) estimated by Cerra and Saxena (2008) suggest that the effects of earlier crises were long-lasting. We show that standard estimates of IRFs are highly sensitive to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583657
-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (á). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy’s steady state growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540249
output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital. The long run theory is tested using a new quarterly data … long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583685
The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659187
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728