Showing 1 - 10 of 338
linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833938
individuals use simple rules of thumb (heuristics) to forecast the future inflation and output gap. We compare this model with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405712
found to help rationalizing the hump-shaped response of inflation, without resorting to the counterfactual assumption of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008572477
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498989
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013037
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time …-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the …-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406171
We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887047
This brief exposition suggests that the Federal Reserve System temporarily guarantee a lower bound on stock prices in order to escape the current combination of liquidity trap and credit crunch. It shortly discusses reasons for this measure, consequences, and some alternatives. It is meant as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765775
This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861862
This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation … the fraction of borrowers and to a lesser extent the loan-to-value ratio - generate inflation differentials that are … characteristics of financial markets should be seen as a possible alternative explanation for the observable inflation dispersion in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727289