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Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model

Wdowinski, Piotr - CESifo - 2005

In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations, which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects of changes to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766248

Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland

Wdowinski, Piotr - CESifo - 2004

In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005249463

Resource Rents, Power, and Political Stability

Bjorvatn, Kjetil; Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza - CESifo - 2014

We study the association between resource rents and political stability, highlighting the importance of the distribution of political power as a mediating factor. We present a simple theoretical model showing that increased rents are likely to be positively associated with the stability of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010756166

The Deepening China Brazil Economic Relationship

Whalley, John; Medianu, Dana - CESifo - 2010

We document key features of the deepening economic relationship between Brazil and China. This is evident from sharply … international fora. Data presented show bilateral trade between Brazil and China surging after 2001 and China is now Brazil … rates suggest that China will become the dominant trade partner for Brazil surprisingly soon. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833874

The Rapidly Deepening India-China Economic Relationship

Whalley, John; Shekhar, Tanmaya - CESifo - 2010

In this paper we focus on the rapidly deepening bilateral India-China economic relationship. Each is deeply integrating … into the global economy through trade and FDI inflows, China is seen as primarily manufacturing-lead growth with India as … China, and the two have to be considered a joint global presence. India and China are thus viewed in the literature in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671685

The Collapse Speed of China's Exports in the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis

Jing, Ran - CESifo - 2011

This paper studies the performance of China’s exports during the 2008—2009 financial crisis. It focuses on the speed at … which China’s exports were hit by this downturn. Product-country monthly exports data is utilized. It is found that GDP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320783

Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy

Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2008

We develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents use simple but biased rules to forecast future output and inflation. This model generates endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (“Animal Spirits”) that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. We contrast the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765824

Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Macroeconomics

Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2010

I distinguish two types of macroeconomic models. The first type are top-down models in which some or all agents are capable of understanding the whole picture and use this superior information to determine their optimal plans. The second type are bottom-up models in which all agents experience...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534015

Ageing and Growth in the Small Open Economy

Heijdra, Ben J.; Romp, Ward E. - CESifo - 2006

We construct an overlapping generations model for the small open economy whichincorporates a realistic description of the mortality process. Agents engage in educational activities at the start of life and thus create human capital to be used later on in life for production purposes. Depending...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094204

Retirement, Pensions, and Ageing

Heijdra, Ben J.; Romp, Ward E. - CESifo - 2007

We study the effects of demographic shocks and changes in the pension system on the macroeconomic performance of an advanced small open economy. An overlapping-generations model is constructed which includes a realistic description of the mortality process. Individual agents choose their optimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094360