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Public Good Provision with Robust Decision Making

Angelopoulos, Konstantinos; Economides, George; … - CESifo - 2012

In this paper, we study a two-country dynamic setup with environmental externalities and potential model misspecification in relation to this public good. Under model uncertainty, robust policies help to correct the inefficiencies associated with free riding on public good provision, implying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877702

Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility

Markiewicz, Agnieszka - CESifo - 2010

This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596599

Jointness of Growth Determinants

Doppelhofer, Gernot; Weeks, Melvyn - CESifo - 2007

This paper introduces a new measure of dependence or jointness among explanatory variables. Jointness is based on the joint posterior distribution of variables over the model space, thereby taking model uncertainty into account. By looking beyond marginal measures of variable importance,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094441

Unraveling the Fortunates of the Fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach

Eicher, Theo; Papageorgiou, Chris; Röhn, Oliver - CESifo - 2007

We investigate country heterogeneity in cross-country growth regressions. In contrast to the previous literature that focuses on low-income countries, this study also highlights growth determinants in high-income (OECD) countries. We introduce Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) to address...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094478

The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions

Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús; Doppelhofer, Gernot; … - CESifo - 2009

autoregressive (SAR) structure. We investigate the existence of parameter heterogeneity by allowing for interactions of potential …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094484

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2009

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051516

The Impact of Financial (De-)Regulation on Current Account Balances

Moral-Benito, Enrique; Röhn, Oliver - CESifo - 2014

Both global imbalances and financial market (de-)regulation feature prominently among the potential causes of the global financial crisis, but they have been largely discussed separately. In this paper, we take a different angle and investigate the relationship between financial market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011082830

When is Ambiguity-Attitude Constant?

Eichberger, Jürgen; Grant, Simon; Kelsey, David - CESifo - 2012

This paper studies how updating affects ambiguity-attitude. In particular we focus on the generalized Bayesian update … of the Jaffray-Phillipe sub-class of Choquet Expected Utility preferences. We find conditions for ambiguity-attitude to … be the same before and after updating. A necessary and sufficient condition for ambiguity-attitude to be unchanged when …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010539152

Why Uncertainty Matters - Discounting under Intertemporal Risk Aversion and Ambiguity

Traeger, Christian - CESifo - 2012

contribution, the paper extends the smooth ambiguity model by providing a threefold disentanglement between, risk aversion …, ambiguity aversion, and the propensity to smooth consumption over time. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645646

Impatience and Uncertainty: Experimental Decisions Predict Adolescents' Field Behavior

Sutter, Matthias; Kocher, Martin G.; Rützler, Daniela; … - CESifo - 2011

We study risk attitudes, ambiguity attitudes, and time preferences of 661 children and adolescents, aged ten to … mass index, are less likely to save money and show worse conduct at school. Experimental measures for risk and ambiguity …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364730