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Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model
Dees, Stephane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - CESifo - 2010
. We discuss estimation of impulse response functions and variance decompositions in such large systems, and present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534040
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Did the Fed Surprise the Markets in 2001? A Case Study for VARs with Sign Restrictions
Uhlig, Harald - CESifo - 2001
In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 per cent at the end of 2000 to 2.0 per cent by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094352
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Economic Growth in Africa: Comparing Recent Improvements with the "lost 1980s and early 1990s" and Estimating New Growth Trends
Leibfritz, Willi; Flaig, Gebhard - CESifo - 2013
In the first part of the paper we look at economic growth in Africa over the past three decades. We divide the past three decades into two parts: A „lost period“ from 1981 to 1995 and a „recovery period“ since the second half of the 1990s. During the first period, Africa did not catch up...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010641423
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Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations
Alexius, Annika; Holmlund, Bertil - CESifo - 2007
such as unemployment. Previous studies indicate that monetary policy affects the output gap only at business cycle … frequencies, but the effects on unemployment may well be more persistent in countries with highly regulated labor markets. We … study the Swedish experience of unemployment and monetary policy. Using a structural VAR we find that around 30 percent of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766226
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Back to Keynes?
Ploeg, Frederick Van der - CESifo - 2005
. Furthermore, they fail to allow for quantity rationing and to model unemployment as a catastrophic event. The macroeconomics based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181517
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Hyperbolic Discounting and Positive Optimal Inflation
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis - CESifo - 2011
The Friedman rule states that steady-state welfare is maximized when there is deflation at the real rate of interest. Recent work by Khan et al (2003) uses a richer model but still finds deflation optimal. In an otherwise standard new Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024848
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Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP
Flaig, Gebhard - CESifo - 2001
In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components. The main findings are that there exist three cycles with a period of about two, five and 13 years, respectively, and that the long-run development during the last 50 years can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196244
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Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP
Flaig, Gebhard - CESifo - 2002
In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405783
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Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy
Flaig, Gebhard; Ploetscher, Claudia - CESifo - 2000
This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order … ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416484
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The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates
Graff, Michael; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - CESifo - 2010
From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799743