The efficient rate of return of a zero-coupon bond with maturity <i>t</i> is determined by our expectations about the mean (+), variance (-) and skewness (+) of the growth of aggregate consumption between 0 and <i>t</i>. The shape of the yield curve is thus determined by how these moments vary with <i>t</i>. We...

This paper analyses the determinants and effects of ECB interventions in times of severe distress. We focus on the Greek government bond market in mid-2010 and use a unique new dataset to show, for the first time, what type of bonds the ECB bought. We then explore the short-term effects of ECB...

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of...

This paper investigates the impact of international shocks – interest rate, commodity price and industrial production shocks – on key macroeconomic variables in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries by using near-VAR models and monthly data from the early 1990s to 2009. In...

This paper introduces agent heterogeneity, liquidity, and endogenous default to a DSGE framework. Our model allows for a comprehensive assessment of regulatory and monetary policy, as well as welfare analysis in the different sectors of the economy. Due to liquidity and endogenous default, the...

In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA,...

In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations, which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects of changes to...

We study differences in the price paid for liquidity across banks using price data at the individual bank level. Unique to this paper, we also have data on individual banks’ reserve requirements and actual reserve holdings, thus allowing us to gauge the extent to which a bank is short or long...

Using the new unit root test by Phillips et al. (2011) we show that the Target balances of the German Bundesbank have been exploding from the beginning of 2009 to the beginning of 2013. By implementing a full-allotment policy and reducing the required minimum quality of collaterals in October...

As shown in Sinn and Wollmershäuser (2012a), during the European balance-of-payments crisis, inter-governmental credit and Target credit granted by core-country central banks have replaced private international capital flows in financing the crisis countries' current account deficits, and even...