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Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States

Buch, Claudia M.; Schlotter, Martin - CESifo - 2008

increase uncertainty through a higher volatility of employment. We use regional data from Germany to test whether openness for … trade has an impact on volatility. We find a downward trend in the unconditional volatility of employment, which has been … interrupted by the re-unification period. Patterns are similar to those for output volatility. The conditional volatility of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406262

Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2010

This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation differentials can be explained by cross-country differences concerning the characteristics of financial markets. Our results suggest that empirically plausible degrees of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727289

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies

Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka - CESifo - 2009

We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013072

Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows: Evidence from Latin America

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - CESifo - 2012

American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010595388

Macroeconomic Modeling when Agents are Imperfectly Informed

Grauwe, Paul De - CESifo - 2008

DSGE-models have become important tools of analysis not only in academia but increasingly in the board rooms of central banks. The success of these models has much to do with the coherence of the intellectual framework it provides. The limitations of these models come from the fact that they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405712

Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty

Henzel, Steffen; Wieland, Elisabeth - CESifo - 2013

We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two decades. Second, based on a Factor-Structural Vector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877745

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks

Robays, Ine Van - CESifo - 2012

demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575442

Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation

Flaig, Gebhard; Wollmershäuser, Timo - CESifo - 2007

This paper presents a stress indicator for the Euro-zone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short-term interest rate and the interest rate that would...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094297

The Price Puzzle Revisited: Can the Cost Channel Explain a Rise in Inflation after a Monetary Policy Shock?

Henzel, Steffen; Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayer, Eric; … - CESifo - 2007

This paper explores whether the cost channel solves the price puzzle. We set-up a New Keynesian DSGE model and estimate it for the euro area by adopting a minimum distance approach. Our findings suggest that - under certain parameter restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094397

Market Power and Inflation

Chirinko, Robert S.; Fazzari, Steven M. - CESifo - 2000

Market power exercised by firms has become central to macroeconomics. Recent theoretical work highlights the importance of the relation between market power and inflation. We examine this relation for individual firms in eleven U.S. industries. Our econometric framework exploits restrictions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094449