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Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ciferri, Davide; Girardi, … - CESifo - 2010

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534005

How Strongly Did the 2007/08 Oil Price Hike Contribute to the Subsequent Recession?

Carstensen, Kai; Elstner, Steffen; Paula, Georg - CESifo - 2011

that a demand-driven oil price rise leads to a shift in world demand towards German export goods. In a counterfactual …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008853845

The Fossil Episode

Hassler, John; Sinn, Hans-Werner - CESifo - 2012

We build a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with one-sided substitutability between fossil carbon and biocarbon. One shock only, the discovery of the technology to use fossil fuels, leads to a transition from an initial pre-industrial phase to three following phases: a pure fossil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877924

Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses

Gronwald, Marc - CESifo - 2009

This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013074

A Characterization of Oil Price Behavior - Evidence from Jump Models

Gronwald, Marc - CESifo - 2011

This paper is concerned with the statistical behavior of oil prices in two ways. It, firstly, applies a combined jump GARCH in order to characterize the behavior of daily, weekly as well as monthly oil prices. Secondly, it relates its empirical results to implications of Hotelling-type resource...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009371347

Exporting and Labor Demand: Micro-level Evidence from Germany

Lichter, Andreas; Peichl, Andreas; Siegloch, Sebastian - CESifo - 2014

It is widely believed that globalization affects the extent of employment and wage responses to economic shocks. To provide evidence for this, we analyze the effect of firms’ exporting behavior on the elasticity of labor demand. Using rich, German administrative linked employer-employee panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877822

Uncertain Productivity Growth and the Choice between FDI and Export

Yalcin, Erdal - CESifo - 2009

between export and FDI. The model combines the proximity-concentration trade-off framework with the real option methodology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534026

What Explains Germany’s Rebounding Export Market Share?

Danninger, Stephan; Joutz, Fred - CESifo - 2007

Germany’s export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study …-shoring). An export model is estimated covering the period 1993–2005. The dominant factor explaining the increase in market share … are trade relationships with fast growing countries. Regionalized production in the export sector also played a part …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406147

Does Innovation Cause Exports? Evidence from Exogenous Innovation Impulses and Obstacles

Lachenmaier, Stefan; Woessmann, Ludger - CESifo - 2004

exogenous to firms’ export performance. We find that innovation attributable to this variation leads to an increase of roughly 7 … percentage points in the export share of German manufacturing firms. The evidence is robust to several alternative specifications …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406266

Heterogeneous Firms in a Product Fragmentation World

Gao, Yue; Whalley, John - CESifo - 2013

, those with intermediate productivity will export, and those with higher productivity will choose fragmentation. Among the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010652445