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Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - CESifo - 2011
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391724
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Government Budget Deficits in Large Open Economies
Buiter, Willem H.; Sibert, Anne - CESifo - 2011
Large and growing levels of public debt in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and the Euro Area raise new interest in the cross-country effects of a large open economy’s deficits. We consider a dynamic optimising model with costly tax collection and exogenously given public spending and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009150638
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Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Review and Estimates for the EU
Beetsma, Roel; Giuliodori, Massimo - CESifo - 2010
We briefly review the theoretical and empirical consequences of discretionary fiscal policy changes, after which we provide our own estimates for the EU countries. A fiscal expansion raises output and consumption and reduces the trade balance. Moreover, the stimulating effect of higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534042
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Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records
Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2013
We estimate cross-border spillover effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on output, bilateral trade flows, interest rate, and the exchange rate, employing the new IMF action-based fiscal consolidation data. Results indicate a negative effect of foreign fiscal consolidation policies on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010674455
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Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area
Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2012
We estimate spillover effects of a fiscal shock in one member country in the euro area on outputs of the rest of the members, using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model. We compare the effects of a domestic fiscal shock with those of a similar size area-wide shock expressed as a weighted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010568610
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Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union
Bayar, Ali; Smeets, Bram - CESifo - 2009
Using an extended data set of EU countries ranging from 1971-2006 and relevant econometric methods, we investigate the economic, political, and institutional determinants of government deficits in the EU. The results show a strong opportunistic behaviour of policymakers which leads to political...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000369
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The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes
Arghyrou, Michael G.; Tsoukalas, John D. - CESifo - 2010
We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799726
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International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement
Sly, Nicholas; Weber, Caroline - CESifo - 2013
Economic shocks often permeate borders generating comovement in nations’ business cycles over time. We highlight the fact that fiscal policy coordination is an important avenue by which national economies become more integrated, influencing the transmission of macroeconomic shocks between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010690374
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Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers
Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom - CESifo - 2014
A number of recent studies regress a “narratively” identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of an instrumental variable approach in which the narrative time series is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948895
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Government Spending Shocks and the Multiplier: New Evidence from the U.S. Based on Natural Disasters
Yang, Weonho; Fidrmuc, Jan; Ghosh, Sugata - CESifo - 2012
, the expenditure associated with military build-ups affects primarily the defense sector so that the resulting multiplier … powerful instrument for identifying government spending shocks. Furthermore, we show that the multiplier pertaining to non …-defense government spending is higher than the defense-spending multiplier estimated in the literature using military build-ups. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877863