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The Quantity Theory of Money and Friedmanian Monetary Policy: An Empirical Investigation
Hillinger, Claude; Süssmuth, Bernd; Sunder, Marco - CESifo - 2012
We introduce an approach for the empirical study of the quantity theory of money (QTM) that is novel both with respect … directly on the relationship between the rate of change of the money stock and inflation. We believe that this is an inferior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009653372
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Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union
Uhlig, Harald - CESifo - 2013
This paper seeks to understand the interplay between banks, bank regulation, sovereign default risk and central bank guarantees in a monetary union. I assume that banks can use sovereign bonds for repurchase agreements with a common central bank, and that their sovereign partially backs up any...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877795
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Political Booms, Financial Crises
Herrera, Helios; Ordonez, Guillermo; Trebesch, Christoph - CESifo - 2014
We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010888458
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Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable
Egert, Balazs; MacDonald, Ronald - CESifo - 2006
This paper surveys recent advances in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM). In particular, while laying out the functioning of the separate channels in the MTM, special attention is paid to exploring possible interrelations between different channels through which they may amplify or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094342
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Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based Evidence from Japan
Schenkelberg, Heike; Watzka, Sebastian - CESifo - 2011
Using post-1995 Japanese data we propose a theory-based sign-restriction SVAR approach to identify monetary policy shocks when the economy is at the zero-lower bound. The identifying restrictions accord with predictions of corresponding DSGE models. Our results show that while a quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009147746
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The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank
Kirchgässner, Gebhard; Wolters, Jürgen - CESifo - 2010
quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand … relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then, employing error correction models, measures of excess money are derived … money is generally a better predictor than the quantity of money. Taking into account also the most (available) recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533982
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The Quantity Theory of Money: An Assessment of its Real Linchpin Prediction
Hillinger, Claude; Süßmuth, Bernd - CESifo - 2010
This study approaches the Quantity Theory of Money at a conceptual level, asking how it can be most reasonably …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534035
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Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - CESifo - 2013
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877944
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Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies
Boeckx, Jef; Dossche, Maarten; Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2014
We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887047
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The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - CESifo - 2014
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010948836